More or Less: Behind the Stats
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More or Less: Behind the Stats
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
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Numbers of the year 2026
From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026...
Numbers of the year 2025
From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We expl...
Numbers of the year 2025
We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across t...
Were there really Three Wise Men?
The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time.
We also figure out just how many parking officers...
The shocking world of US health costs
A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same...
Do we really have ‘superflu’?
The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.
Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to...
RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?
Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphe...
Is RFK right about US sperm counts?
Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates.
The US is no except...
Richard Thaler and The Winner’s Curse
In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.
These “behavioural economists”...
Is there a stock market crash coming?
For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Inte...
Has there been a $50 trillion wealth transfer to the richest Americans?
Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s.
...
Is RFK Jr right about China's diabetes rate?
The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again.
One of his health-promotion ideas is to redu...
Halloween special: How many people did the real Dracula impale?
Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal t...
Is your housework split sexist?
Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer.
Corinne...
Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
The three are sharing 11 m...
Are millions of people getting Motability cars for anxiety and ADHD?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are...
Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?
In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were fore...
Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay in tax?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households...
Is the world getting less miserable?
When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than...
Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is th...
The Case of the Missing US Data
In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites.
Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for...
Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants t...
Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?
On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In t...
Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with som...
Will the world really be 50 million workers short by 2030?
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.
The boss of the world’s mos...
Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £...
Do 11,000 sharks die every hour?
Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them.
Millions of...
Are self-driving cars safer than cars with drivers?
Fully autonomous cars are here. In a handful of cities across the US and China, robotaxis are transporting human passengers around town, but with no h...
Do women feel the cold more than men?
Are office temperatures set too low in the summer for women to be comfortable?
This idea has featured in news headlines and comedy videos which...
How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?
In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places.
...
Why it matters that Trump fired data chief
On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs...
Are abortion numbers rising in the US?
In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitut...
Does a single AI query use a bottle of water?
We’re living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to...
Are one in six children living through war?
In the midst of the television coverage of Soccer Aid, a celebrity soccer match organised by Unicef, the audience was told that “one in six children a...
Why Manchester United can afford to play badly
Manchester United are terrible, even according to their own manager. Last season saw their worst ever performance in Premier League history.
But...
Can drinking one less bottle of coke a day halve obesity?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week:
Is the secret to halving obesity rates really just a matter of...
The economics of war: Vikings, Conquistadors and Vietnam
How does economics help us understand conflicts through history?
That’s the question that economist and journalist Duncan Weldon tries to answe...
Is the UK seeing a Christian revival?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week:
Is church-going making a comeback in the UK?
Is it true that...
Has Russia suffered a million casualties in the Ukraine war?
It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides.
Recently, politicians and...
Why is data on grooming gangs so bad?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. In this episode:
Why is the data on the ethnicity of grooming gangs of such po...